Global Retail Expansion at a Crossroads Global Retail Expansion at a Crossroads

Top 30 List Top 30 List

Rank Country Score Remarks

1 China 72.5

China’s economic growth has slowed, yet the GRDI’s top-ranked country remains one of the most attractive global retail markets.

2 India 71.0

GDP growth, improved ease of doing business, and better clarity regarding foreign direct investment (FDI) regulations put India in 2nd place.

3 Malaysia 59.6

Malaysia is the most business-friendly environment among Southeast Asian countries ranked in the GRDI.

4 Kazakhstan 56.5

Economists see retail as a source of economic growth amid low oil prices. The challenge is assuring investors that the country has the scale for long-term opportunities.

5 Indonesia 55.6

Despite its relatively low retail sales per capita and currency volatility, Indonesia’s huge population and cities make it quite attractive to foreign retailers.

6 Turkey 54.3

Turkey’s retail market remains attractive, with solid growth and untapped potential for concepts that could upend a market still dominated by traditional retailers.

7 United Arab Emirates 53.6

The UAE remains an attractive and relatively low-risk market option for retailers.

8 Saudi Arabia 52.2

Retail sales in the country grew by 5 percent over 2014, thanks largely to favorable demographic conditions.

9 Peru 51.9

Peru is Latin America’s top-ranked country, as it performed above regional averages and had 3.6 percent GDP growth, well ahead of the overall region.

10 Azerbaijan 51.2

The government has put effort into attracting tourists, advertising the capital Baku as a luxury destination.

11 Vietnam 50.8

Vietnam has low market saturation and GDP growth that is highest among Southeast Asian countries in the GRDI.

12 Sri Lanka 50.7

This island nation remains a favorable market for retail, thanks to a strong economy and few restrictions on foreign investment.

13 Jordan 49.9

Jordan's high ranking is thanks in large part to a retail market that is fairly unsaturated relative to other developing countries.

14 Morocco 49.5

A large and increasingly wealthy population, along with a relatively stable economic and political situation, puts Morocco in the upper half of the GRDI.

15 Colombia 49.0

Colombia's middle class is growing, its poverty levels are falling, and its scores for country risk and market saturation are strong.

16 Philippines 47.7

As the outsourcing industry helps boost the Philippines’ economic growth, long-term prospects for retail remain positive.

17 Dominican Republic 45.8

Dominican Republic has a large population, an expanding middle class, and a vibrant economy.

18 Algeria 45.2

Algeria’s strengths are pretty clear: a large population, one of Africa’s highest GDP per capita rates, and low retail saturation. But there are some risks.

19 Nigeria 43.8

Sub-Saharan Africa’s most populous country offers global retailers many opportunities, including a fast-growing middle class.

20 Brazil 43.0

Brazil’s 20th-place ranking highlights the political and economic instability that has rocked the country in the past year.

21 Côte d’Ivoire 43.0

Côte d’Ivoire has enjoyed rapid economic growth over the past four years and relative political stability after a decade-long war.

22 Russia 41.8

A weak but more stable ruble could help foreign retail chains developing new units and acquiring property, but the sales outlook will likely be middling at best.

23 Zambia 41.6

Modern retail is limited even as more consumers demand it. The players that dominate the formal retail market are mostly South African.

24 Romania 40.2

Although the country’s population is 45 percent rural, modern trade is developing fast. Major retailers are expanding aggressively with smaller formats.

25 Paraguay 39.6

Landlocked Paraguay's fundamentals are stabilizing, with GDP growth at 3.2 percent in 2015, and inflation falling within target ranges.

26 Tunisia 38.7

Tunisia's low market saturation and underserved population of 11 million represent a nice opportunity, particularly in grocery.

27 South Africa 36.7

Sub-Saharan Africa’s most developed country has its most saturated retail market, representing 88 percent of the available space in the whole region.

28 Ghana 36.0

Informal trade dominates, but rising disposable incomes are increasing the popularity of modern-style malls that offer one-stop shopping.

29 Kenya 35.6

Kenya has Africa’s second-largest modern retail market, and its strength is reinforced by sound economic growth, and a growing and urbanizing middle class.

30 Egypt 34.7

Egypt reenters the rankings for the first time since Arab Spring. As the country stabilizes, it offers an attractive medium-to-long-term value proposition for retailers.

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