The 2004 Global Retail Development Index

Emerging Market Priorities for Global Retailers

After a pullback in 2003, global retail is back on track for growth. The most significant growth is taking place in emerging markets where about two-thirds of global retailers interviewed are planning to increase their activities this year. The reasons are clear: A host of new member countries in both the World Trade Organization (WTO) and European Union (EU), and increased consumer spending in emerging markets. Tie these changes to growing competition and regulatory requirements in domestic markets, and a new view of global retail is taking shape.

To help retailers prioritize their market entry choices, A.T. Kearney developed the Global Retail Development IndexTM (GRDI). This annual survey ranks emerging countries based on four key variables: country risk, market attractiveness, market saturation and time pressure. Among the current year’s key findings is that Russia, once again, ranks as the most attractive emerging market. Despite India’s stiff regulatory environment, it shines as the second star of the year, offering potential similar to that revealed by China 15 years ago.

In entering new markets, timing and flexibility apply more than ever. At the same time, the rules of engagement are changing. As this year’s index reveals, retailers are becoming more sophisticated, and regional players are quickly learning how to anticipate global retailers’ future moves.