Crisis in the North American Automotive Industry – Weathering the Storm
The 13th Annual A.T. Kearney Report at Townsend is based on analysis of 35 years of light-vehicle sales data and the application of three different economic scenarios to baseline future industry demand and growth. A.T. Kearney analyzed variables including GDP growth, consumer confidence, credit availability, affordability, licensed drivers, vehicle age and vehicle scrap rates reaching back to 1973.
A key prediction is that although U.S. auto sales will contract an additional 24 percent to 10 million in 2009, sales will return to more than 16 million units by 2012 under the most likely scenario. The study’s executive summary includes:
- U.S. automotive sales outlook
- Tier 1 supply base impact
- Strategic view of the U.S. automotive market
- Implications for OEMs and suppliers
Download Executive Summary and Select Excerpts
 Crisis in the North American Automotive Industry
Contact
 If your senior leadership team would like an in-person debrief of the study, please contact Dan Cheng, A.T. Kearney partner and Americas automotive practice lead.
News Release
A.T. Kearney’s 13th Annual Auto Study Provides Forecasts for U.S. Auto Sales Through 2014
14 May 2009
A new study demonstrates that auto sales are driven by four macroeconomic factors and presents forecasts for new auto sales for each of the next 5 years.
Media
Auto industry stress
21 May 2009 — Business News Network
North American Automotive Practice Leader, Dan Cheng, is interviewed on Business News Network (BNN) about the findings of A.T. Kearney’s 2009 Automotive Townsend Study. BNN Host Michael Kane’s questions focus on the firm’s auto-industry stress test and what it reveals about the U.S. auto business’s future.
Downturn to drive shakeout in US auto sector-study
14 May 2009 – Reuters
The US auto market has too many automakers for the long term and the deeply stressed supply base needs $24 billion over this.
Auto suppliers could need up to $33.5B in aid
14 May 2009 – LeftLane News
Chrysler and General Motors have now received more than $20 billion in government loans to keep their operations afloat but a new study.
The Auto Industry: Why Seven Must Become Three
14 May 2009 – WSJ Blogs
The woes of the U.S. auto industry are well known, but even given a somewhat rosy outlook there are still too many players in the market, according to a study to be released today by A.T. Kearney, a global management consulting firm. The firm suggests that despite expected improvement over the next couple years in auto sales, major restructuring of the industry is unavoidable.
Suppliers will need up to $33.5 billion to stay solvent, study says
14 May 2009 - Crain's Detroit Business
Auto suppliers will need cash infusions of $17 billion to $33.5 billion over the next two to four years to avoid a wave of bankruptcies, according to an A.T. Kearney Inc. study released today.
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